In the next divisional preview, I take a look at perhaps the most open and shut division in all of the NFL, the AFC South.
Houston Texans
2014: finished regular season 9-7 (2nd in division)
Offence: the likely Achilles Heel of this team, the Texans offence was to have been based around the running game of Arian Foster, who ran for 1,246 yards and 8 touchdowns a year ago, in addition to 5 receiving touchdowns from 38 receptions. Plans will have changed following a groin injury to Foster in training camp and their offence will now be dependent on the winner of the Quarterback job between Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett getting the ball to the receiving corp, led by the improving DeAndre Hopkins.
Defence: the cornerstone of this team is the defence. Led by MVP runner-up J.J Watt, who had an equal career high 20.5 sacks last season, the Texans’s defence was mid table in yards and points conceded in 2014. If 2013 first overall draft pick Jadeveon Clowney can get his body right and add to that mix, Houston can be a top 5 NFL defence.
Fantasy player to watch: Hopkins is now the key man in the offence. Entering his 3rd year and with last year’s number one receiver Andre Johnson gone, many more targets will be headed his way. The injury to Foster only increases that.
Key to their success/failure: the defence and Watt in particular is going to have to carry a big load. It’s hard not to seem going backwards a little bit this season, although a decent schedule in their own division and against the NFC South may push that up a little bit.
Predicted regular season finish: 7-9
Indianapolis Colts
2014 : finished regular season 11-5 (won division), lost AFC Championship game to the New England Patriots 45-7
Offence: one of the best offences in the entire NFL. The first ranked passing offence for yards has added even more weapons, acquiring Andre Johnson from Houston and drafting Phillip Dorsett with their first round pick in the 2015 draft. Add that to T.Y Hilton, Dante Moncrief and Tight End Dwayne Allen and Luck is spoilt for choice. The running game has also improved with the addition of San Francisco’s Frank Gore, who has had eight 1,000 plus yard rushing seasons in the past nine years.
Defence: the defence, while not terrible, is not great. The Colts were expected to bolster their defence through the draft, which left many surprised when they took Dorsett in the first round. While they can get through the division, improvement from the defence is needed for the Colts to take the next step.
Fantasy player to watch: Andrew Luck is one of the first two Quarterbacks taken in almost every fantasy draft. Strong, reliable and durable, Luck is worth spending a first or second round pick on.
Key to their success/failure: the health of Luck. If he goes down then the Colts will have to go to back-up Matt Hasselbeck, a solid back-up but not a starter at 39 years of age. Even if Luck does go down, they probably still win the division.
Predicted regular season finish: 12-4
Jacksonville Jaguars
2014: finished regular season 3-13 (3rd in division),
Offence: a young up coming offence, the great majority of the skill players are coming into their second year, from Quarterback Blake Bortles to the wideout Allens (Robinson and Hurns). Adding to that mix free agency signing Tight End Julius Thomas from Denver should see a steady improvement in the passing game. Rookie Running Back T.J Yeldon will lead a running division that includes Denard Robinson and the much maligned Toby Gerhart.
Defence: under defensive head coach Gus Bradley, Jacksonville’s defence was better than the 3-13 record in 2014 would indicate. The defence was further addressed in the draft when Defensive End Dante Fowler Jr. was selected at the third overall pick, however Fowler unfortunately sustained a season ending knee injury in rookie mini-camp.
Fantasy player to watch: Yeldon is going at around the end of the eight round in a ten team standard league. A great option for an RB3 of flex player.
Key to their success/failure: the ability of the offence to limit turnovers
Predicted regular season finish: 5-11
Tennessee Titans
2014: finished regular season 2-14 (4th in division)
Offence: last season saw a revolving door at the Quarterback position. Those days appear to be over with Marcus Mariota taken out of Oregon with the second overall pick of this year’s draft. Mariota has impressed in training camp, developing a strong chemistry with Wide Receiver Kendall Wright. The Titans offence is thin at the Wide Receiver and Running Back positions, with Harry Douglas and Bishop Sankey figuring to be starters’ although these two are expected to be challenged and potentially usurped by rookies David Cobb and Dorial Green-Beckham.
Defence: the defence, unsurprisingly for a 2-14 team, was horrible last season. In particular they were terrible against the run where they conceded 2,195 yards (2nd worst in the NFL) and 17 touchdowns (equal 3rd worst). Curiously the defence was not addressed in the drafy until the 4th round.
Fantasy player to watch: Delanie Walker is a great late round option at Tight End, receiving for almost 900 yards and catching four touchdown passes last season. With greater Quarterback stability this season those numbers can only improve.
Key to their success/failure: the impact Mariota will have on the offence. This could determine the fate of head coach Ken Wisenhunt.
Predicted regular season finish: 4-12
Predicted Divisional Standings
1. Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
2. Houston Texans (7-9)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)
4. Tennessee Titans (4-12)
Next up is the AFC East
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