England are in control of the 2015 Ashes series following a 169 run victory in the First Test.
In a carbon copy of the past three Ashes series in England, the English got the early series momentum through a combination of tight bowling, effective batting and making the best use of the conditions after winning the all important toss.
Australia needs to wrest that momentum back in the 2nd test, starting Thursday at the home of cricket, Lords in London.
While a 169 run victory, looks like a big margin, the reality is that it wasn’t that bad for the Aussies. Had Brad Haddin caught Joe Root on nought, the game is totally different. Had just one Australian batsman converted a start in each innings, that would have made up that difference easily.
Australia have far more upside going into the 2nd test.
By contrast, England played about as well as they possibly can in Cardiff.
Likely Australian XI – Warner, Rogers, Smith, Clarke, Voges, M. Marsh, Nevil, Johnson, Starc, Hazlewood, Lyon.
Two changes are flagged to the Australian line-up. One is forced as Peter Nevil comes in to replace Haddin, who was pulled out for personal reasons. This change may have happened anyway as Haddin is a fading force with both the bat and the gloves.
Nevil was the 8th leading scorer in the Sheffield Shield last season, with an average just under 75. His keeping is top notch.
The other change is the dropping of Shane Watson for Mitchell Marsh at No.6. This change simply had to be made, Watson has had so many chances and has failed to deliver on a consistent basis. The predictable nature of his dismissals make his place in the team untenable.
One more change may happen depending on the fitness of Mitchell Starc. If Starc is ruled out, his place will be taken by Peter Siddle.
Likely England XI – Cook, Lyth, Ballance, Bell, Root, Stokes, Buttler, Ali, Broad, Wood, Anderson
No change to the team that won the 1st test.
All-rounder Moeen Ali is under an injury cloud due to a side strain. His loss would be crucial for England as he provided critical runs and wickets in the 1st test.
2nd test prediction: Much depends on the toss. Whoever wins the toss in England has a distinct advantage.
Australia need to bowl in the right areas, sticking to a plan for each batsman, rather than doing something different every few balls, as it seemed happened in Cardiff.
Clarke must put a third-man in right from the start to save easy runs that too often got the English batman off to a good start in the first test. That will force them to find other ways to score.
The batsman have to bat with concentration and application. That does not mean batting at 2 runs per over, rather picking the right ball and play the right shot at the right time. The runs will come.
They cannot let Jimmy Anderson and Stuart Broad get on a roll and grow confidence.
England will be looking to continue the momentum they gained in Cardiff. This is a crucial test for both teams, not many series are lost after leading 2-0.
Having said that, Australia will win and square the series.
Series prediction: Unchanged. Australia to win 3-1
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