Its a big night in Australian sport tonight.
The eyes of the sporting public will be alternating between the deciding Rugby League State of Origin match in Brisbane and the opening day of the Ashes test cricket series in Cardiff.
Australia must be favourites heading into the series, holding the Ashes following the 5-0 demolition of the English on home soil just 18 months ago.
However England are always harder to beat at home. The conditions and Duke ball favour their pace attack. Their batting looks stronger, however they have not been tested against a truly world-class attack since the last Ashes series.
Likely Australian XI – Warner, Rogers, Smith, Clarke, Voges, Watson, Haddin, Johnson, Starc, Hazlewood, Lyon.
Most of the Aussie team picks itself. Rogers comes back in and Watson retains his place as the all-rounder (for now). Watson’s economical bowling probably gets him the nod but he must deliver with the bat to keep his place.
The batting line up can be fragile and has been 5/150 too many times in recent years. Dave Warner is a key to getting Australia off to a good start, while Steve Smith will be looking to continue his golden run. Michael Clarke will be keen for one last big series in the old dart, both as a batsman and spinner.
The pace attack picks itself following the retirement of Ryan Harris. Mitchell Starc has the capacity to win this series all by himself. Mitch Johnson will be under a lot of pressure but seems to be in a good headspace. Josh Hazlewood is a reliable foil for the left handed pair, his height and bounce will trouble the English batsman.
Nathan Lyon is the best spinner in either side. This time there is no debate on his place in the side and there is no Ashton Agar to take his place.
Likely England XI – Cook, Lyth, Ballance, Bell, Root, Stokes, Buttler, Ali, Broad, Wood, Anderson
England’s batting looks brittle although Alistair Cook has been in decent form of late. Ballance and Bell did not look good against New Zealand. England must be worries about their batting as they are playing Mooen Ali, a batsman who bowls a bit at number 8 as their front line spinner.
The series could come down to the batting of Joe Root and Ben Stokes. Root has almost averaged 100 in test cricket in the past year, while Stokes has drawn comparisons to Andrew Flintoff with important innings in tough times.
One area they have a clear advantage in is wicketkeeping. Jos Buttler is a more than capable keeper and a far superior batsman than Brad Haddin. Buttler has the capacity to change a game in a similar way to Adam Gilchrist.
Questions also linger for mine on the fast bowling brigade. James Anderson and Staurt Broad had terrible Ashes series in 13/14 out there and while they are harder to play in England, they are ageing and if Australia’s top order can get at them big scores are there for the taking.
Mark Wood is unproven other than as a net bowler.
1st test prediction: Reports of rain and the preparation of a flat pitch are not good news for a result in this match. For this reason I see a draw, but with Australia having the best of the game, a good hit-out for the Aussies to get used to the conditions against good opposition.
Series prediction: Australia to win 3-1
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